#98 - Hopeful
A chap named Jon, straightforward, and a quiet crisis
I’m optimistic about climate change.
Do I think we’re currently headed towards disaster?
Almost certainly.
But I do think we’ll avert that disaster.
Because the world is waking up.
And I, for one, am long on human ingenuity.
Oh, hello.
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A Chap Named Jon
Let me take you to the late 1970s.
And a chap named Jonathan Shanklin.
One day Shanklin, a meteorologist with the British Antarctic Survey, was shifting through data. It showed changes in the atmospheric ozone.
When to his alarm he noticed a problem: The ozone layer appeared to be thinning.
Perhaps you know what happened next.
Well, not much at first.
It took years for anyone to notice.
In the early 1980s that thinning became a hole.
Confirmed by the British Antarctic Survey in 1985.
They suggested chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) as a suspect- a chemical used in products such as aerosols.
Over the next decade panic grew.
Stories of the horrors awaiting us were rife. By the 1990s the hole in the ozone layer was the predominant environmental issue of the day.
The world took action.
Production and consumption of CFCs was phased out. By 2009 usage was down 98%.
But was it too late?
Straightforward
No.
It wasn’t.
The ozone layer is, remarkably, recovering. By the middle of this century it’s expected to reach pre-1980s thickness. It looks like we got away with it.
Well, with that one anyway.
Now it’s out of the frying pan and into the fire.
And it’s quite a fire indeed.
We reversed the ozone damage by removing a handful of chemicals. But global warming runs far deeper.
It’s straightforward in theory:
The increasing carbon in the atmosphere is trapping in heat and warming up the planet.
The concentration of carbon then is the number to watch. It’s rising fast:
The issue lies in our reliance on carbon dioxide producing industry. From our food change to energy production. We’re hooked.
But we do understand the problem. And, crucially, we’re worried.
People are on it. Work is underway to revolutionise our food production, accelerate the move to renewables, electrify our transport, and rewild the planet.
There’s certainly a long way to go. Much much more is needed. But my bet is we get it solved.
A Quieter Crisis
Human ingenuity is remarkable. We’re great problem solvers when we put our mind to it.
What’s even more remarkable is how much we care.
Alarm is rising on Climate Change. Sure, it’s not yet fast enough. But it’s great that it’s rising at all.
There’s something kind of magical about it. First tens, then thousands, then millions and billions- working to undo the damage we’ve done.
The advantage with tackling climate change is how visible the damage is: Polar Bears crowded onto slivers of ice, fires ravaging the global, or even Venice underwater.
It’s all around us. East London, of all places, was on fire last month.
But what of the less visible issues?
One has to wonder what happens to these quieter crises. Take mental health for example.
Don’t let Covid take the blame: Society’s Mental Health was spiralling down long before that.
Kids born today have smartphones before they can walk. That does something to a child. The issue is we don’t know what.
But here too I’m optimistic.
It will take time.
It will, I’m sure, require growing alarm.
But a different, happier future is far from lost. We might just crack this one too.
My Week in Books📚
Leadership by Henry Kissinger
A wonderful book. Tracing six remarkable leaders Kissinger crossed paths with in the 2nd half of the 20th century. What’s all the more impressive is he wrote this book aged 99.
I’ll be updating the books I’ve read this year here. Any recommendations? Let me know! See 2021’s books here.
A Final Thought 💡
"The path, of course, is not always smooth, and may at times this year have felt quite bumpy, but small steps can make a world of difference."
- Queen Elizabeth II
RIP 🙏
Nice one, I'm optimistic as well! Great quote from the Queen to round it off.